I count nine elite NBA players. Each of them guarantees a team at least 48-50 wins and gives them a good chance to make a deep playoff run. LeBron, Chris Paul, Dwyane Wade, Dwight Howard, Kevin Durant, Carmelo, Derrick Rose, Dirk, Kobe--and that is not in order of caliber, but if it was LeBron would still be first and Kobe would still be last. The middle seven are a toss-up.
None of these guys could win a championship on their own. Of the players above, the one that won a championship as the team's star with the weakest roster around him is surprising--it's Dirk. Wade won with Shaq. Kobe won with Shaq and then Gasol. Dirk won with his best teammate being, umm, Jason Terry? A 38 year-old Jason Kidd? An shorter than six-foot white point guard J.J. Barea?
Before he elevated his game this year you could count on the Mavs winning about 50 games every year. Same thing when LeBron reached his prime in Cleveland. Carmelo did the same in Denver. Same goes for Paul, Durant, Rose, and Howard. The only ones that have had a losing season are Wade and Kobe. In 07-08 Wade and Shaq played 82 games... combined. And the team used Stephane Lasme, Luke Jackson, and Kasib Powell as starters a few times. They finished 15-67 and gave basketball a great "sign that your team is not doing well." The answer: you are starting a guy named Stephane.
In his first year post-Shaq, the Lakers went 34-48 and Kobe had the worst year of his career. He shot 43.3% on field goals--worst ever for him excluding when he was teenager. And he averaged a career high in turnovers per game with 4.1.
But aside from Miami in '08 and the Lakeshow in '05, if your team has one of these nine players then you are at the least competing for an 8-seed and at most competing for a ring. That is pretty good considering some of the teammates of LeBron in Cleveland, Dwight in Orlando, and Paul in New Orleans. These guys made Mo Williams, Jameer Nelson, and David West all-stars just by playing with them.
Pair any of these guys with a fellow superstar and you are competing for a championship. Two of them played for a new team last year (LeBron and Carmelo) and two will this year; Paul, the league's best point guard, and Howard, the league's best center.
I would bet Paul goes to the Clippers because they can offer the Hornets the best players in return, some combination of Chris Kaman, Eric Bledsoe, Eric Gordon, Al Farouq-Aminu, and Minnesota's first round pick which is a potential top-five pick in a loaded draft. That would allow Paul and Blake Griffin to set the record for most alley-oops in a game (my prediction: 17) and a season (my prediction: 984) and would make me feel like a fool if I do not find someone willing to bet me before the trade happens that the Clippers will win more games than the Lakers this year.
The scariest thing that I heard all day was that the Lakers are interested in acquiring both Paul and Dwight. They won't, but their front office does not mess around. If Paul goes to the other Los Angeles team, there is no way the Lakers could let the trade deadline pass while trailing the Clippers in publicity. The Lakers have players that Orlando may want that they do not.
"Gasol, Bynum, Odom-- pick any of those two, and we throw in two-first round picks. In return, we take Dwight and either Arenas or Turkoglu-- your choice." That is the offer L.A. makes and that is a better deal for Orlando than the current highest bid from New Jersey: Brook Lopez and two first-round picks.
That is what I think will happen, but sources say that league sources have told anonymous sources that unnamed sources have said that I could easily be wrong, sources have reported.
Orlando has to get rid of Howard because he would leave after this season and they would rather trade him than let him go to free agency. The Hornets are owned by the league and are looking for a buyer (Steve Ballmer, I would do anything for you if you made this happen, and when I say anything, I mean anything) and they must decide what kind of team potential buyers would prefer to invest in. If they do not trade Paul, there will be uncertainty with the stability of the organization and trade rumors flying around like banshees. But if they do trade him the team will likely be without a marketable, young superstar.
Either way I believe both Dwight Howard and Chris Paul are long gone:
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